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2 hours ago, lowenz said:

Guys, no, dear TAFFERS since 1998, I salute you :v

It seems that Coronavirus is knocking @my door! Hope me not knocking @Heavens door 😛

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The Trickster eventually found me after 22 years :ph34r:

 

Well, the last numbers I read, the virus had a kill ration that is actually not that high. If you are younger than 70 years, it is very unlikely to die because of it (I think less than 1% of infected die). Still, stay safe and healthy!

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I know I know ;)

Problem is not for me but for my parents of course!

Still we must monitor the consequences of the infection in the "healed" ones (the follow-up), specially the ones gone through the intensive care unit (lung damage risk).

As italians I hope we can be a world trailblazers in this fight, so we can show the good points in our health care system to all the other states.

And medical research too!

Edited by lowenz
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Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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Of course! No need to worry for me!

It seems we're @ 9.462 screened individuals with a 95% resulting negative. Maybe the test is not sensible enough but with a 90% too the lookout is good for the infection containment.

Once the spreading is halted we must analyse the damage done to a patient lungs and how the virus goes quiescent (if not wiped out from the body)

And now the winter is gone, so no risk for bad pneumonia cases in that 5% .....thanks to global warming 😛 

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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The funny thing is that hundreds of thousands of people die of the regular flu every year. The media really likes to blow things out of proportion nowadays.

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2 hours ago, chakkman said:

The funny thing is that hundreds of thousands of people die of the regular flu every year. The media really likes to blow things out of proportion nowadays.

The message, "Relax, things are better than you think" doesn't tend to drive people to consume (and therefore fund) news.

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As expected it has arrived :P

Italian: https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/Isola/coronavirus-nuovo-caso-a-cisano-tampone-positivo-e-un-50enne_1342745_11/

"Cisano" is 1 km away from my house :D (far left in the image posted before)

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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If you ask me, the big problem from a medical perspective is not the - yes I must be cinical here -  the death of elder people already affected by other conditions.

Or the (little number of) "deaths" in general. They're inevitable "casualties of the war".

Problem is that this guy has the 75% of the SARS genoma and the SARS-related research was abandoned for all those years passed since 2003!

So we're left relying on the Flu model for the epidemic dynamic but we got NO clues about the follow-up of the *healed* people.

'cause maybe they're NOT healed at all.

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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11 hours ago, Swiggy said:

We need cool heads and a measured response, but I despise this casual dismissal just because the media are shit.

How does that fit together? The media coverage doesn't provide a "cool head". It provides a hysterical headless chicken.

Also, I can't see what the presence of a vaccine has to do with it. There are gazillions of lighter illnesses which can't be cured.

Unfortunately, with such a hysteric press, when we're really hit by a serious epidemic, we won't notice, because the media coverage will the same.

Edited by chakkman

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Vaccine avoids propagation and mitigates re-infection risks (and damage from multiple re-infections).

We don't know if and how much the self-developed defenses last 'cause the virus is an newly born version of the old SARS one (not a son but a brother/cousin 😛 )

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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56 minutes ago, chakkman said:

serious epidemic

If the risk of re-infection is high this IS a serious case.

If not it's like classic influenza.

We really don't know shit 😕

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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Clinically I think we must think of this as "light but direct pneumonia".

For the "light" cases I can suggest kind of "self-monitoring" of the the oxygen blood level through the state of consciousness (pneumonia, altering the absorbed oxygen, alters the brain functions when the oxygen debt can't compensate) and mitigate the symptoms related to the immune system response.

And wait 1 month 😕

 

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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1 hour ago, peter_spy said:

First infected person in my area was announced today (a person travelling back from Thailand). Officials remain silent, probably in order not to spread panic.

And where does the paper where you read this have the information from? If not from "officials", I mean.

Edited by chakkman

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15 hours ago, Swiggy said:

OK this is irresponsible.

The flu has vaccines. There is NO VACCINE for COVID-19. 

FYI, the flu deaths that occur happen despite the existence of vaccines (which are often less than 50% effective).

 

Quote

We've lost the ability to not think in extremes.

It's funny, because you appear to acknowledge the truth behind both statements in the post you quoted:

"hundreds of thousands of people die of the regular flu every year."   

"The media really likes to blow things out of proportion nowadays."  

Which of those statements is "extreme"?

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, peter_spy said:

Officials remain silent, probably in order not to spread panic.

I hear that quite a lot in recent times. I suspect it's also the official reason why carneval was permitted to take place in the most populous region of Germany (while Venice has called off theirs this year). Now several German carneval-goers have been found to be infected. And I've heard that communication from the health ministry to general practitioners has been scant.

It's somewhat more "panic"-causing for me that the government doesn't take such basic measures when it's clear the virus will soon take a foothold in Europe.

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2 hours ago, Springheel said:

FYI, the flu deaths that occur happen despite the existence of vaccines (which are often less than 50% effective).

 

It's funny, because you appear to acknowledge the truth behind both statements in the post you quoted:

"hundreds of thousands of people die of the regular flu every year."   

"The media really likes to blow things out of proportion nowadays."  

Which of those statements is "extreme"?

The first.

Classic influenza pathogens can't induce a direct pneumonia. So you can die for the complications of the infection, not straight from the starting infection. And so you got more time to avoid the bad cases.

SARS and Covid-19 (SARS 2) can. Covid-19 is a lighter version, thanks the Builder 😛 But being lighter is more contagious. So it can reach for a greater number of weak people.

MERS is their killer sister.

 

This is the "critical" point.

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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As expected the hospital you see in the image ("Alzano Lombardo" is the town of that hospital) has the ER staff infected 😕

So you can imagine the amplification effect for days of exposition to public......

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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51 minutes ago, lowenz said:

The first.

Classic influenza pathogens can't induce a direct pneumonia. So you can die for the complications of the infection, not straight from the starting infection. And so you got more time to avoid the bad cases.

 

 

It's hard to make a case that the claim is "extreme" when it is literally the first result of a Google search:
Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that's higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

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4 hours ago, chakkman said:

And where does the paper where you read this have the information from? If not from "officials", I mean.

I guess they have sources or someone from hospital staff has turned to them. Supposedly the test turned out positive and it was sent to a laboratory in the capital to be officially confirmed. The woman already felt ill when she was in Thailand though. How she was let go from the capital airport is beyond me. I guess they weren't smart enough to check anyone else than travelers from China and Italy. She flew in, took a train from capital to here, and went to local hospital herself.

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1 hour ago, Springheel said:

 

It's hard to make a case that the claim is "extreme" when it is literally the first result of a Google search:
Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that's higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

But we cannot say how lethal Covid-19 is, because it is so new. The infectiousness is seriously alarming. If it turns out to be hamrless (i.e. not deadly), ti is fine. If it turns out that it is more deadly than thought, we are in serious trouble. I am also no fan of creating panic (and am pretty calm myself about the whole situation), but on teh grounds that we have no clear picture of this virus, it is best to stay cautious and prevent the spreading as good as we can.

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1 hour ago, Springheel said:

 

It's hard to make a case that the claim is "extreme" when it is literally the first result of a Google search:
Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that's higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Yes, but SARS-like affections work directly @alveoli level. Flu doesn't. SARS and Covid-19 can kill/debilitate more directly.

Flu can kill thanks to some bacteria "help" (LOL), so you have more freedom of choice with the therapy and time to avoid death.

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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Why did Swiggy cancell all his posts here (I mean the all forum) ? 😐

Edited by lowenz

Task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen but to think what nobody has yet thought about that which everybody see. - E.S.

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