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Real Life Blues: The Tense Geopolitical Situation of Today's World and how I predicted this shit yet all of you laughed at me


Kurshok
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2 hours ago, Xolvix said:

How would someone even be in a position to kill Putin? He doesn't seem to go out in public much anymore so you'd have to get to a meeting with him, and I doubt you'd get a pistol or knife past his guards/metal detectors/pat downs.

Only way to kill him would involve getting really close anyway which is hard enough. Have you seen how long his tables are?

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417de5d0-98c2-11ec-bf3f-aa47d35384f3

By the time you cross the halfway point you've probably already been shot dead.

One of his guards could, although unlikely, grow a conscience and turn their gun upon Vladdy.

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1 hour ago, Kurshok said:

One of his guards could, although unlikely, grow a conscience and turn their gun upon Vladdy.

We are assuming of course that the rest of the Russian Government would be like "whew!" and immediately work towards ending the war and restoring the economy/country's reputation. There's gonna be plenty of Putin loyalists around, even if he was mostly driving the show himself.

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A word of warning, Agent Denton. This was a simulated experience; real LAMs will not be so forgiving.

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2 hours ago, Xolvix said:

We are assuming of course that the rest of the Russian Government would be like "whew!" and immediately work towards ending the war and restoring the economy/country's reputation. There's gonna be plenty of Putin loyalists around, even if he was mostly driving the show himself.

Yeah, but after what Putin has pulled? He's tainted goods, politically. Whereas whoever offs him, even if it was one of his most hard-core supporters, would be able to coast off the reputation of being the "Tyrant-Slayer" to forward their own political career.

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On 2/28/2022 at 10:30 AM, Zerg Rush said:

I would not complain about NATO, if it really were an alliance of sovereign countries, but in reality it is not like that, with the US in absolute control, it has only caused us problems and several wars that had nothing to do with us, far from providing stability.
While the US does not stop sticking its nose into matters that do not concern it and does not even bother to understand, it is an elephant in a china shop and we the subordinates who have to clean up afterward and pay for the damage.


It is terrible what Russia is doing invading Ukraine and the whole world is rightly outraged by this. But how many countries has the US invaded, to impart democracy and incidentally, for oil? (1)

Are we just as outraged by the refugees from Syria and other African countries fleeing terrorism and bombardments with our weapons as we are now by the Ukrainian refugees? There is a lot of hypocrisy on this matter, there is no black and white, more than those who have drowned in the Mediterranean for years, bled to death on barbed wire fences or die of disgust in concentration camps on the Turkish border.

(1)

1. Grenada (1983-1984)
2. Bolivia (1986)
3. Virgin Islands (1989)
4. Liberia (1990; 1997; 2003)
5. Saudi Arabia (1990-1991)
6. Kuwait (1991)
7. Somalia (1992-1994; 2006)
8. Bosnia (1993-)
9. Zaire/Congo (1996-1997)
10. Albania (1997)
11. Sudan (1998)
12. Afghanistan (1998; 2001-)
13. Yemen (2000; 2002-)
14. Macedonia (2001)
15. Colombia (2002-)
16 Pakistan (2005-)
17. Syria (2008; 2011-)
18. Uganda (2011)
19. Mali (2013)
20. Niger (2013)
21. Yugoslavia (1919; 1946; 1992-1994; 1999)
22. Iraq (1958; 1963; 1990-1991; 1990-2003; 1998; 2003-2011)
23. Angola (1976-1992)

I don't think it's reasonable to say that the situation with refugees from African countries is the same as the situation with refugees from Ukraine.

I'm not saying that African refugees are somehow "bad" because I understand they have no interest in dying in a war that they probably don't care about and don't view it as "their" war. I wouldn't want to do that either and I never spoke against accepting them.

But at the same time with Ukraine the situation is quite different. The message is pretty clearly "we want to take care of this war and return to our country ASAP, just let us get our families to safety and give us as much military support as you can". Also Ukrainians are culturally closer to us and most of the countries that the refugees are going to already have sizeable Ukrainian minorities, so the citizens have a feeling that they "know them". The transports are more organized and most people have legal documents.

It may not be fair, but it's obvious that in such situation the refugees are much more accepted. 

Your list of military operations is nice, but I don't think it tells much on its own. I don't know about all of them, but those that I do know about I'd argue none are nearly as black and white as what's happening in Ukraine. But to be honest I don't really want to go into it further. Arguing about what NATO or the US did wrong while there are people dying under Russian aggression, some of whom I met in person, somehow doesn't feel appropriate.

The first wave of refugees is already here and me and my family are collecting aid for Ukrainian mothers with children sleeping in a gym not far from here, will be driving it to them in the evening. That's a better use of time than arguing anyway. 

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1 hour ago, Kurshok said:

Yeah, but after what Putin has pulled? He's tainted goods, politically. Whereas whoever offs him, even if it was one of his most hard-core supporters, would be able to coast off the reputation of being the "Tyrant-Slayer" to forward their own political career.

I think you overestimate the political culture and activity of common citizens in Russia. It's hard to describe how much common Russians outside of the largest cities are used to suffer under whatever tzar is currently leading the country and mind their own business. And Putin is just one person in a whole huge interconnected structure of oligarchs and ex-kgb mafia. He may be a level crazier than the rest of the structure at this moment, but I don't see any significant change happening if somebody gets rid of him. Long term maybe, but certainly no revolution or immediate positive development.

In any case Putin being removed or NATO going into war with Russia is nothing more than fantasy at this point and I don't see that as particularly useful.

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Anonymous says that

cancelling russia is going to make people more radical not less. Also its complete hypocrisy
33m
 
 
 

Do you agree? I think that cumsoomers never decide for themselves.
When you have to rely only on cumsoomers making the choice to support a cause that means that this cause has no future.
Russia also has only 1.5 anonymous who will buy video games. Everybody else pirates things. So they don't really matter.

I don't think that cancelling, ban-hammers make people more radical. It's a peaceful method. The best way to end flame wars is to shut up the aggressor. Nobody's going to die from that.

Life teaches ppl what is right and wrong, what is truth and what is a lie.
I don't possibly see how this can get any more radical within reasonable limits.
The next level is only mercenaries, PMC and such. No-fly zones means nuclear war probably and all that jazz.
So nothing to lose at this point.
The wave of sanctions must continue.

 

 

May be an image of text

Edited by Anderson
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"I really perceive that vanity about which most men merely prate — the vanity of the human or temporal life. I live continually in a reverie of the future. I have no faith in human perfectibility. I think that human exertion will have no appreciable effect upon humanity. Man is now only more active — not more happy — nor more wise, than he was 6000 years ago. The result will never vary — and to suppose that it will, is to suppose that the foregone man has lived in vain — that the foregone time is but the rudiment of the future — that the myriads who have perished have not been upon equal footing with ourselves — nor are we with our posterity. I cannot agree to lose sight of man the individual, in man the mass."...

- 2 July 1844 letter to James Russell Lowell from Edgar Allan Poe.

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I remember hearing that Russia's economy, under the sanctions it is enduring, could only last the war 10 days. It is now on day 12. Is Putin starting to have to dip into the offshore bank accounts he and the other oligarchs have taken under the table for years to fund the war?

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On 3/7/2022 at 11:44 AM, Kurshok said:

I remember hearing that Russia's economy, under the sanctions it is enduring, could only last the war 10 days. It is now on day 12. Is Putin starting to have to dip into the offshore bank accounts he and the other oligarchs have taken under the table for years to fund the war?

The thing with Russia is, that it actually can be fully self-sufficient when managed correctly. It has fertile land, fossil energy deposits (oil, gas, Uranium), sustainable energy sources (wood, wind), building materials (stone, clay, sand, wood), iron ore, some other ores and even diamonds...

With a strong leader they could be fully self-sufficient in a matter of a few years. But they don't even have to, as they share a border with China. China is the biggest single market and basically the factory of the world. China also could easily be self-sufficient - and is working on that since a few years already.

Russia + China = World dominance! Both: Economically and military!

We are pretty stupid, so we force Russia to finally make friends with China right now. We should have not expanded Nato eastward back then in 1999. But now we are also in a world trade war which we actually started. Could be worse: We could also try to invade Russia in winter... again.

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4 hours ago, Abusimplea said:

We should have not expanded Nato eastward back then in 1999.

Nato is a defensive alliance which does not invade neighbouring countries, unlike Russia. Failing to expand it would have achieved nothing (aka appeasement, or falling for the claim that Russia feels threatened by Nato) and only left more countries exposed, like Ukraine, to Russian special military operations.

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2 minutes ago, Dragofer said:

Nato is a defensive alliance which does not invade neighbouring countries

Right. NATO expands when other countries ask to join. They don't park their armies outside other countries' capitals.

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3 hours ago, Dragofer said:

Nato is a defensive alliance which does not invade neighbouring countries, unlike Russia.

Thought experiment: The Warsaw Pakt still exists and Canada is about to join it. I know exactly, what the USA would have thought about that.

Yeah, sure, i would really like to believe Nato to be a purely defensive alliance while we drone civilians to death in various countries far far away. The thing is, that we literally fought wars for oil.
I would like to be on moral high ground against dictators like Putin. But sadly its all moral flatlands till the horizon. There aren't any hills to stand on.

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8 hours ago, Abusimplea said:

Thought experiment: The Warsaw Pakt still exists and Canada is about to join it. I know exactly, what the USA would have thought about that.

Yeah, sure, i would really like to believe Nato to be a purely defensive alliance while we drone civilians to death in various countries far far away. The thing is, that we literally fought wars for oil.
I would like to be on moral high ground against dictators like Putin. But sadly its all moral flatlands till the horizon. There aren't any hills to stand on.

BOLLOCKS

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I think that NATO expansion is a legit right under international law and all that jazz but we all know that new NATO members aren't worth much and their military is busier with siphoning off funds and embezzlement rather than providing security.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/romanian-prosecutors-investigate-diesel-theft-us-military-base-2021-11-24/

 

The coalition of the willing included NATO members but non-NATO countries also provided troops for Iraq. Other pro-US military missions like KFOR in Kosovo include non-NATO countries. You don't need to be a member to help the US. NATO is just a formalization of those efforts.

In general I didn't read much on military alliances and neutrality. I saw authors criticize neutral countries because few countries are genuinely neutral. Ireland, Serbia, Japan are supposed to be neutral but they are aligned either with the US or Russia. Perfect Swiss neutrality is impossible for most countries because they aren't home to dirty bank money and they didn't have hundreds of years of stability to build up armies. Additionally neutral countries seem not to have much luck in joining the EU in Europe because the 1993 Copenhagen criteria for EU membership presume that there is security to maintain stable institutions. Under any interpretation, just facts: the majority of EU members states are also NATO members. Meanwhile another fact is that no new EU member states from the former socialist, communist USSR countries have not become EU countries until they joined NATO. So countries like mine such as the Republic of Moldova have no chances at the moment as long as we're neutral is seems. Though this is completely bullshit and against peace and détente of which I'm a big fan of.

At the same but it seems that the future behind perfect true peace and stability is not having military like Costa Rica. There might be democracy behind pepole voting to join NATO and sending their money to bomb far away countries but the best war that we ever had is the one that we could avoid. Democracy is simply the lesser evil among the other forms of government.

Edited by Anderson

"I really perceive that vanity about which most men merely prate — the vanity of the human or temporal life. I live continually in a reverie of the future. I have no faith in human perfectibility. I think that human exertion will have no appreciable effect upon humanity. Man is now only more active — not more happy — nor more wise, than he was 6000 years ago. The result will never vary — and to suppose that it will, is to suppose that the foregone man has lived in vain — that the foregone time is but the rudiment of the future — that the myriads who have perished have not been upon equal footing with ourselves — nor are we with our posterity. I cannot agree to lose sight of man the individual, in man the mass."...

- 2 July 1844 letter to James Russell Lowell from Edgar Allan Poe.

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20 hours ago, Abusimplea said:

With a strong leader they could be fully self-sufficient in a matter of a few years. But they don't even have to, as they share a border with China. China is the biggest single market and basically the factory of the world. China also could easily be self-sufficient - and is working on that since a few years already.

Russia + China = World dominance! Both: Economically and military!

We are pretty stupid, so we force Russia to finally make friends with China right now. We should have not expanded Nato eastward back then in 1999. But now we are also in a world trade war which we actually started. Could be worse: We could also try to invade Russia in winter... again.

I don't think Russia could be self-sufficient with success because it lacks the infrastructure to reach a lot of its natural resources and to refine them. It's only rich in theory in a similar way that many African countries are "rich". It also lacks high tech industries in general. 

Tech can be supplied from China, but what's more probable than China and Russia vs the rest of the world is that China will economically exploit Russia because that's just what they do (they're doing it already, buying and extracting resources in Siberia and creating pockets of Chinese population, so far small ones) and they have the upper hand now, hurting Russia in the long run. China may be trying to become self-sufficient with imports, but their whole economy is based on exports and there's no way that's going to change. For that they need the west to exist in a non-collapsed state because the Russian market is not going to be big enough to replace the west in decades even in a best-case scenario for them.

This situation could in fact easily be used to sow discord between Russia and China by the west and it would be the smart thing to do, but I don't know if any western leaders have the balls to do that. 

 

13 hours ago, Abusimplea said:

Thought experiment: The Warsaw Pakt still exists and Canada is about to join it. I know exactly, what the USA would have thought about that.

Warsaw pact was a coalition of totalitarian states that even used it to oppress and murder its own citizens. That is not a useful comparison.

 

13 hours ago, Abusimplea said:

Yeah, sure, i would really like to believe Nato to be a purely defensive alliance while we drone civilians to death in various countries far far away. The thing is, that we literally fought wars for oil.
I would like to be on moral high ground against dictators like Putin. But sadly its all moral flatlands till the horizon. There aren't any hills to stand on.

Even in the stupid Iraq war with made up weapons of mass destruction "we" managed to depose a murderous dictator. This is true of most NATO operations, even the ones that are seen as screw ups are rarely black & white. There's is nothing to redeem the invasion of Ukraine, that's what makes it strange and why the reaction to it was so strong.

 

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"I really perceive that vanity about which most men merely prate — the vanity of the human or temporal life. I live continually in a reverie of the future. I have no faith in human perfectibility. I think that human exertion will have no appreciable effect upon humanity. Man is now only more active — not more happy — nor more wise, than he was 6000 years ago. The result will never vary — and to suppose that it will, is to suppose that the foregone man has lived in vain — that the foregone time is but the rudiment of the future — that the myriads who have perished have not been upon equal footing with ourselves — nor are we with our posterity. I cannot agree to lose sight of man the individual, in man the mass."...

- 2 July 1844 letter to James Russell Lowell from Edgar Allan Poe.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Anderson said:

 

And what is this supposed to mean? Edit: Is it Russians complaining about how hard Putin has made it to vote against him?

Edited by Kurshok
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Posted (edited)

Aw fuck. Russia apparently asked China to send troops. If they do, this could get ugly. Doubly so since Putin is trying to recruit mercenaries from the Middle East amongst the jihadist filth, to give them a chance to strike at the perceived "pervert westerners". Edit: They're keeping a distance for now.

Edited by Kurshok
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As an American, if we do go to war, our missiles will probably be stamped "Made in China" on the side.

 

For those who don't get the joke, nearly everything we use is made in China.

 

EDIT: Also, for those who haven't realized yet, one casualty of heightened international tensions, are cloud services. You as an end user can wake up and find yourself banned from things you rely on, even though you as an individual have done nothing wrong.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/15/mongodb_terminates_russian_saas/

We never had that problem with purchased, boxed products. I seem to recall a quote from the original Deus Ex game about how wrong it was to assume that a kill-switch, once implemented into anything, would not be used or abused. I think it was referring to Paul, when his was activated. That bit left a lasting impression on me, and I refuse to buy products that can be arbitrarily switched off by someone else.

Edited by kano
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no perfect system exists, thats the unfortunate truth we all live with... it all comes down to compromises.

thats not to say the world could not do better at preventing ugly stuff like this happening.

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it is quite funny actually we are all home sapiens sapien despite skintones, everything else i just differences in opinions and leftovers from ancient tribe culture. having borders at all is just laughable when you think of it that way eh ? :P.

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3 hours ago, kano said:

Well, i guess, apart from facing criminal prosecution in a country, he would never visit anyways - he also is a combatant now. Might have way more drastic consequences than just ending a career.

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Just now, Oktokolo said:

he would never visit anyways

The person who did this could, and should, be prosecuted by authorities in the country they reside in. If it doesn't happen, then others will get the idea that this sort of thing is okay.  Logic bombs are not cool.

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