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All Tomorrows and Man after Man: What is your prediction for the future of mankind?


Kurshok
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Russia's economy is still in the toilet and I don't see it as a threat.  And China, while a threat, is literally growing money on trees and trying to export its inflation to developing nations, which isn't really working anymore.  I'm not sure who told them they can just incessantly print money and fudge their numbers, and think there won't be any consequences to that.  Every day China's list of friends grows ever smaller and smaller, to nobody's surprise.

The west is in the grip of what I consider largely a trend, when it comes to "woke culture".  If anyone actually wants to look at the world clearly or maybe even do some travel, they might realise how USA is actually one of the LEAST racist countries.  You can't say "China and Russia isn't racist because look, they all get along great with the dozen or so black people who are actually there", while comparing them to a country that just had a black president, for 2 terms!  It's likely just a generational thing and people will grow out of it, and new batch of fledglings will arrive and see it for what it mostly is, a steaming pile of bullshit.  I'm not 100% against most of the ideas but, typical of human beings, we want to push everything to the extreme and all the extremes are blown out of proportion by a vocal minority, and exploited by mass media.  People who live in their grandma's basement and see the world through this outrage-culture lens are going to think everything is worse than it really is.  I'm optimistic that common sense and rationality will eventually prevail, regarding these particular cultural fads, as the coming generation filters it all, taking what is useful and discarding the stinky fluff.  Mainly because they will have even bigger actual problems and can't afford to distract themselves anymore.

Ultimately, this all falls under the umbrella of divide and conquer tactics used by the large corporations to get people fighting each other over what colour of socks they wear, instead of trying to tackle the real issues that really will see us lining up for thimbles of roach milk.  We're all distracted and acting like children, especially politicians, while facing very real problems that require intelligent adults to solve.  Even something like Covid vaccines have become so highly politicised and business-centric, and the scientists doing the actual work behind the scenes are muzzled by NDAs and you'll never hear from them in the media, even if they weren't.

 

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4 hours ago, OrbWeaver said:

Denying that climate change is happening is pretty daft — the data speaks for itself. It also requires an implausible leap of faith to somehow assume that the large quantities of CO2 and other gases produced by humans aren't at least partly responsible for it.

Nevertheless, there is a lot of alarmist bullshit floating around which we certainly should deny, including:

  • "We're all going to die because of 0.18°C increase per decade" — humans are not polar bears. We can live in environments from the Arctic through to the Sahara desert, a temperature range of 100°C or so. The survival of the human race does not depend on the global average temperature being within 1 degree of a certain value.
  • "Every hurricane, flood, wildfire or other extreme weather event is caused by climate change" — all of these events have been happening since records began, probably since the dawn of the human race or even earlier. The only association with climate change is produced by dodgy computer models which just reflect the assumptions of their developers and operators, and are not evidence of anything. Computer models have so far been wrong about pretty much everything during the Covid pandemic, and are not capable of predicting the weather more than a few days ahead.
  • "There is a Climate Emergency" — there is no such thing as a "climate emergency", because an emergency is (by definition) something which happens suddenly and unexpectedly, and "climate" (also by definition) refers to weather patterns which take place over a long period of time. It would probably take a century to reverse the effects of climate change. Using hysterical language like "emergency" is just political posturing designed to scare people, and it almost certainly won't work.
  • "We can achieve net zero with a few tweaks to government policy" — net zero can only be achieved with crippling job and industry losses, skyrocketing energy prices and possible energy rationing, limited availability of food and other essentials, widespread impoverishment of the population, people starving or freezing to death in their homes. None of this will make any difference to climate change, because China and India will continue to spew as much pollution as they want (see next point).
  • "Where the West leads, other countries will follow" — in case the Afghanistan debacle hasn't made it clear, the West has very little international standing these days. Russia and China will laugh at us (in fact they are already doing so) while we destroy our economies, worship teenagers, scream at each other, abandon human rights and the rule of law, pull down statues, redefine biology, criminalise dissent, and generally turn our once respected civilisation into a laughing stock.

1 We don't going to die because of 0.18º per decade, but it's not the cuestion if we sopport this temperatures, but it's not the same in the environment, 0,18º can be the difference betweenice or not ice in the poles, the difference of the survive of local species, in the directions of ocean flows, the difference ofMethane secure in the permafrost or not.

2 Hurracanes, wildfire and other disaster ever exists, but now everytime with more frequency and with worse conscuences. Like the flood in Germany and Belgium, also existing in the past, but only locally and not over the whole countries like now.

3 The climate emergency is real, because if we don't act now, the problem reaches a point of no return. Saying it's no an emergency is like saying there is no emergency in a building, because there is only one of the rooms in flame.

4 This is the problem, no policy make the changes, until the environment do this by force, but then is to late to do anything. Welcome Mad Max

5The impulse have to part from the "first World" as the principal cause of the climate change, one of us contamine more than 100 familys in the "third World"

 

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28 minutes ago, Zerg Rush said:

2 Hurracanes, wildfire and other disaster ever exists, but now everytime with more frequency and with worse conscuences.

Just a few quotes from the latest IPCC report Zerg about extreme weather.

- Heat Waves: “It is virtually certain that there has been increases in the intensity and duration of heat waves and in the number of heat wave days at the global scale”.

- Heavy precipitation: “the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation have likely increased at the global scale over a majority of land regions with good observational coverage”

- “However, heavier rainfall does not always lead to greater flooding.”

- Flooding: “Confidence about peak flow trends over past decades on the global scale is low, but there are regions experiencing increases, including parts of Asia, southern South America, the northeast USA, northwestern Europe, and the Amazon, and regions experiencing decreases, including parts of the Mediterranean, Australia, Africa, and the southwestern USA.”

- Flooding: “there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale”

- Hydrological drought: “There is still limited evidence and thus low confidence in assessing these trends at the scale of single regions, with few exceptions”

- Meteorological drought: “The regional evidence on attribution for single AR6 regions generally shows low confidence for a human contribution to observed trends in meteorological droughts at regional scale, with few exceptions”

- Ecological and agricultural drought: “There is medium confidence that human influence has contributed to changes in agricultural and ecological droughts and has led to an increase in the overall affected land area”

- Tropical cyclones: “There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multidecadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency- or intensity-based metrics”

- Winter storms: “There is low confidence in observed recent changes in the total number of extratropical cyclones over both hemispheres. There is also low confidence in past-century trends in the number and intensity of the strongest extratropical cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere…”

- Thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, lightning: “observational trends in tornadoes, hail, and lightning associated with severe convective storms are not robustly detected due to insufficient coverage of the long-term observations”

- Extreme winds (between 60S and 60N): “the observed intensity of extreme winds is becoming less severe in the lower to mid-latitudes, while becoming more severe in higher latitudes poleward of 60 degrees (low confidence)”

- Fire weather: “There is medium confidence that weather conditions that promote wildfires (fire weather) have become more probable in southern Europe, northern Eurasia, the US, and Australia over the last century”

So although a lot of alarmist articles would like you to believe otherwise, it's really not that bad. Like I said before, I'm not denying climate change and I'm also not denying that we as humans play role in it, the data just doesn't support that our role is as big as they want us to believe. It's important to calm down a little bit and approach everything more realistically.

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