It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

[Jon Irenicus]

http://www.cnn.com/2...liberia-attack/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak

Edited August 18, 2014 by Jon Irenicus

[Goldwell]

Aw I was still getting excited over the bird flu.. wasn't that meant to kill us all?

[Jon Irenicus]

Aw I was still getting excited over the bird flu.. wasn't that meant to kill us all?

 

So you're saying that just because the bird flu didn't kill us all, this disease won't too?

[Goldwell]

No I'm saying every few years there's some virus that sweeps the news and most of the time its completely sensationalized.

[Jon Irenicus]

No I'm saying every few years there's some virus that sweeps the news and most of the time its completely sensationalized.

 

Yes, I agree with you regarding the other diseases, but this time it's Ebola.

[Springheel]

Ebola is quite difficult to transmit, last I heard. You have to be in direct contact with bodily fluids from someone infected.

[Airship Ballet]

"We're reporting that the Ebola virus has spread throughout Liberia and that those pronounced dead from exposure to it are now coming back to life and attacking aid workers." "My God, you've seen that happen?" "No, we're just reporting it."

[jaxa]

These outbreaks are due to chance and random mutation. Show me a bioengineered plague, and I'll show you an end.

[Jon Irenicus]

Transmission

It is not entirely clear how Ebola is spread.[...]

Airborne transmission has not been documented during previous EVD outbreaks. They are, however, infectious as breathable 0.8– to 1.2-μm laboratory-generated droplets; because of this potential route of infection, these viruses have been classified as Category A biological weapons.[...]

 

Category A

These high-priority agents pose a risk to national security, can be easily transmitted and disseminated, result in high mortality, have potential major public health impact, may cause public panic, or require special action for public health preparedness.

 

 

 

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia...se#Transmission

https://en.wikipedia...rism#Category_A

[Springheel]

It is not entirely clear how Ebola is spread.[...]

 

If you read a little further, you'd see the following quote:

 

The potential for widespread EVD infections is considered low as the disease is only spread by direct contact with the secretions from someone who is showing signs of infection.

 

Obviously "laboratory-generated" transmission is an entirely different matter, but that could just as easily happen with lots of other diseases if someone wanted to put the time and energy into it.

 

Ebola has killed what, 1200 people in Africa? Malaria killed 627 000 there in 2012. 40 000 people die from car crashes in the US every year. Perspective is important.

[Jon Irenicus]

If you read a little further, you'd see the following quote:

 

 

 

Obviously "laboratory-generated" transmission is an entirely different matter, but that could just as easily happen with lots of other diseases if someone wanted to put the time and energy into it.

 

Ebola has killed what, 1200 people in Africa? Malaria killed 627 000 there in 2012. 40 000 people die from car crashes in the US every year. Perspective is important.

 

Yes, I read that. I was only trying to show how little we know about this disease and how it can be used as a biological weapon. Considering no specific treatment for the disease is yet available it would cause quite a damage and panic, and terrorists don't need time and energy to create an agent, it already exists.

 

Also car crashes don't cause public panic or commotion, because it's already an inevitable part of our modern society lifestyle.

Edited August 18, 2014 by Jon Irenicus

[Airship Ballet]

Basically, unless an outbreak coincides with some other virus that renders us all incredibly promiscuous, we're fine.

[Sotha]

I will start worrying about stuff like this once they detect large amounts easily transmitting deadly virus infections at Heathrow or other major airports.

 

Until then I have more basic things to worry like paying the mortgage or not being gruesomely killed in a car accident.

[Jon Irenicus]

Well, I can't argue with that, Sotha.

 

[/thread]

[woah]

Not that big of a deal now, but if it mutates in a way that allows it to spread more effectively than by direct contact, then it could be a huge one. I have no idea what the chances of this are. The 1918 spanish flu that killed 3% to 5% of the world population killed 10% to 20% of those infected. The ebola virus kills between 50% and 90% of the infected.

 

So no need to panic, but best to put a lot of resources into eliminating the virus.

[stumpy]

you just have to drink a lot of water and be very healthy to survive ebola.

 

it could just be a hot country virus and not survive in the cold north.

[lowenz]

Basically, unless an outbreak coincides with some other virus that renders us all incredibly promiscuous, we're fine.

[demagogue]

You guys should read The Hot Zone, the true story of a monkey-only ebola outbreak in Virginia (in the 90s?) that IIRC actually mutated into an airborne version and wiped out a facility full of monkeys in cages. If it'd mutated into the form that infects humans it would have been pretty catastrophic since it was already airborne. I read it years ago though so may be hazy on the details.

 

I took a class called "The Geography of Infectious Diseases" and we learned how they jump to the airports, cities & hubs first, then diffuse out into the suburbs in growing circles, among other things.

[Obsttorte]

I would carry much more about the influenza, which kills much more persons. Or sepsis, which kills 70000 people alone in germany every year. The problem this deseases are spreading that hard in countries like africa is mainly the poor health care system. They need help from europe to take care of it, and it takes some time to get the stuff down there.

 

And a mortality rate of 50-90% is not 100%, so even if it would become transmitable by air and would spread over the whole world, humanity would still survive. And even if all humans would be killed, it wouldn't be the end of the world. The world would remain, just without us. From the perspective of the earth and the other species living on it may be considerable as a new beginning. At least the rats would be happy

 

But honestly, viral infections with a high mortality rate are normally not that effective, as killing their hosts is, from the perspective of the virus, pretty dumb. If it comes to a pandemia, we would just have to lock ourselves in for the two til three weeks it takes the disease to wipe out its victims. (Sounds zynic, I know)

[Jon Irenicus]

They need help from europe to take care of it, and it takes some time to get the stuff down there.

As you can see by the Wikipedia article, it's not only Europe that is helping

 

And a mortality rate of 50-90% is not 100%, so even if it would become transmitable by air and would spread over the whole world, humanity would still survive.

How can you be sure that humanity would still survive?

 

And even if all humans would be killed, it wouldn't be the end of the world. The world would remain, just without us. From the perspective of the earth and the other species living on it may be considerable as a new beginning. At least the rats would be happy

I am well aware of that. That's why the title is " It's the end of the world as we know it"

That is just an expression. Like, it would be the end of the world from the point of view of humanity.

From the point of view of an individual, his death is the end of the world. Because his world ends when he dies (considering he doesn't believe in afterlife).

From the perspective of the Earth and the other species living on it, I think that we are a cancer to this planet.

 

But honestly, viral infections with a high mortality rate are normally not that effective, as killing their hosts is, from the perspective of the virus, pretty dumb.

Totally agree with you.

 

If it comes to a pandemia, we would just have to lock ourselves in for the two til three weeks it takes the disease to wipe out its victims. (Sounds zynic, I know)

I'm not an expert, but I'm pretty sure it would be not that simple. How can we predict such a complex scenario?

Edited August 19, 2014 by Jon Irenicus

[Obsttorte]

How can you be sure that humanity would still survive?

If it would for example kill 90% of all humans, there would be still more then 600 million people left. Pretty much imho.

I'm not an expert, but I'm pretty sure it would be not that simple. How can we predict such a complex scenario?

You may not take me more serious then I really am.

[Melan]

As diseases go, Ebola is too deadly and too horrific to become the destroy-all-humans killer app. It is high-profile so the entire world freaks out when there is an outbreak. The high casualty rates and fast progression from infection to visible symptoms and death are also not optimal to spread it around. If it became loose, it would inflict terrible suffering, but quarantine would stop it fairly effectively. I'd be more afraid of a sneakier virus that could work as a time bomb - cover as much territory as possible without drawing suspicion, then starting the massacre when every major transport gateway and medium-sized city is full of walking carriers.

[chakkman]

And the media virus spreads. Now i read on the news page of m mail provider, that there has supposed to been an ebola case at an employment centre in Berlin. Emphasize "supposed to have been". Honestly, with this kind of news coverage, one shouldn't be surprised when people believe none of the sh** reported anymore. To make people fear is power. And it sells.

[HMart]

Deleted my initial comment because was repeating stuff already said by others. "facepalm"

 

Is what happens when you only read the first comment.

 

Is there a way to delete a comment?

Edited August 19, 2014 by HMart

[demagogue]

What's scary about ebola IMO isn't so much the potential pandemic aspect, but the fear of knowing what will happen if you get infected.

 

A few coughs and you have to worry that not only may you only have days left to live, and a 50-90% chance of death at that, but it's the way that it kills people that puts it over the top. It's not like other terminal diseases where you "merely" feel terribly sick and then keel over. It actually liquifies your insides which then leak right out of you from every orifice it can find. Talk about a horrifying way to go!