Share your Status / What's on your mind?

[cabalistic]

14 minutes ago, chakkman said:

Regarding the 1.3 million Corona victims: Be careful with such numbers. There were lots of cases of countries counting "deaths with Corona". It's not a coincidence that the yearly deaths by influenza are counted in dimensions like 200.000 to 600.000 (in Germany for example), because obviously they can't do a post-mortem examination for every case, just like they can't with Corona. 1.3 million world wide is also not very much, I just stated the deaths by influenza in Germany alone. And, the WHO already corrected the mortality rate a lot downwards.

I don't know where you pulled those numbers from, but they are not even close to true. Influenza deaths in Germany typically range in the thousands to ten thousands, with approximately 25,000 reported for the particularly nasty season of 2017/2018, see e.g. https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/405363/umfrage/influenza-assoziierte-uebersterblichkeit-exzess-mortalitaet-in-deutschland/

600,000 deaths per year would be almost 1% of Germany's population...

[peter_spy]

Quote

I know, as hysteric as this topic is, that a lot of people are very easily offended, insulted, disgusted, whatever really,

 

Yes, and you are so cool and level-headed, just like the hip high-school kids. You propose some cool, rational, and clear ideas to improve the world, and yet noone seems to come up with similar solutions, or follow them. What could it mean then? Is everyone in the world so, so much dumber than you?

Edited November 17, 2020 by peter_spy

[Anderson]

15 minutes ago, chakkman said:

[...] without any real evidence, or a court decision based on it, you condemn a man, and make a public example for him, probably ruining his whole life. That's not cool. I believe in facts, evidence, and in fair court rulings. Otherwise we act like monkey, when we resort to lynch mob mentality. [...]

Just because it's legal, it doesn't mean that justice is done.

 

[chakkman]

11 minutes ago, peter_spy said:

 

Yes, and you are so cool and level-headed, just like the hip high-school kids. You propose some cool, rational, and clear ideas to improve the world, and yet noone seems to come up with similar solutions, or follow them. What could it mean then? Is everyone in the world so, so much dumber than you?

See, I would really discuss with you, if you wouldn't be so aggressive and defensive.  Get your attitude straight, and we'll do, but, not like that.

[chakkman]

13 minutes ago, cabalistic said:

I don't know where you pulled those numbers from, but they are not even close to true. Influenza deaths in Germany typically range in the thousands to ten thousands, with approximately 25,000 reported for the particularly nasty season of 2017/2018, see e.g. https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/405363/umfrage/influenza-assoziierte-uebersterblichkeit-exzess-mortalitaet-in-deutschland/

600,000 deaths per year would be almost 1% of Germany's population...

You're right. Probably wrongly added a 0 to those numbers... what I did read though is that the numbers are a rough approximation. For the obvious reason that you can't do a full post-mortem examination for everyone.

Edited November 17, 2020 by chakkman

[peter_spy]

I have nothing to defend yet, when the level of discussion is this shallow. You propose simplistic and reductive ideas that an average Joe could come up with an instant. The reality is much, much more complex than that. Usually when someone gets to details, you go with sealioning and otherwise wasting time of anyone that believes for a second that you really want to discuss something. Don't expect anyone to believe you have rational mindset behind all this, because in all discussions I've seen so far, it's mostly nihilism and lack of empathy dressed as rationalism. None of what you have to say is in any way constructive or inclusive, you're here just to kick up shit and feel you have something "controversial" to say. What you don't want to recognize is that you mistake "controversial" for simplistic and dumb.

[STiFU]

To get a positive spin on this discussion, what about the following little story:

Due to Covid, I am working from home and because of that, I just got to experience how my son (turning 1 year on monday) took his first steps, and now he is walking around the flat as if he had never done anything else! It's such a normal thing to happen, but I still feel so incredibly proud right now!!

[cabalistic]

7 minutes ago, chakkman said:

You're right. Probably wrongly added a 0 to those numbers... what I did read though is that the numbers are a rough approximation. For the obvious reason that you can't do a full post-mortem examination for everyone.

They are a statistical estimate based on excess mortality. Certainly not accurate to the last count, but the order of magnitude is probably quite accurate. The amount of actual clinically confirmed influenza deaths is typically in the low thousands or even below. The current 13,000 COVID deaths reported for Germany, by comparison, are clinically confirmed cases.

[peter_spy]

4 minutes ago, STiFU said:

To get a positive spin on this discussion, what about the following little story:

Due to Covid, I am working from home and because of that, I just got to experience how my son (turning 1 year on monday) took his first steps, and now he is walking around the flat as if he had never done anything else! It's such a normal thing to happen, but I still feel so incredibly proud right now!!

Congrats, it's awesome that you didn't miss it!

[Carnage]

The thing with corona is that the PCR test isn't done the same in every country and sometimes not even by different authorities in the same country. Anything more than 30 amplification cycles just leads to a higher rate of false positives. In The Netherlands they use about 40 in some places and 25 in others and some scientists have said that the rate of false positives is as high as 30%. People getting infected again is most of the time a false positive as well, because the PCR test sees remains of the virus as positive as well even though those people aren't infected any more. Not saying corona is a hoax, it's just not as bad as they want us to believe.

[chakkman]

22 minutes ago, cabalistic said:

They are a statistical estimate based on excess mortality. Certainly not accurate to the last count, but the order of magnitude is probably quite accurate. The amount of actual clinically confirmed influenza deaths is typically in the low thousands or even below. The current 13,000 COVID deaths reported for Germany, by comparison, are clinically confirmed cases.

Clinically confirmed eh? Just like the amount of Corona infections, I guess.

I can assure that they don't have the means to examinate 13.000 thousand people in such a short perdiod of time.. It's very expensive to do such investigations.

Edited November 17, 2020 by chakkman

[revelator]

bad or not it is an unknown which could potentially become something far worse, that is why there is so much talk about it.

Viruses mutate a lot who can say if the next iteration will not be deadlier ? the answer atm is noone can.

[cabalistic]

9 minutes ago, chakkman said:

Clinically confirmed eh? Just like the amount of Corona infections, I guess.

I can assure that they don't have the means to examinate 13.000 thousand people in such a short perdiod of time.. It's very expensive to do such investigations.

Very well, deaths of people with clinically confirmed Corona infections. So yeah, a few of those might have died even without Corona, and more will have been missed as they weren't tested.

[revelator]

And nice one stifu yeah the small things in life are sometimes forgotten so it is cool when we notice things like that.

[chakkman]

9 minutes ago, cabalistic said:

Very well, deaths of people with clinically confirmed Corona infections. So yeah, a few of those might have died even without Corona, and more will have been missed as they weren't tested.

The question is rather whether or not they died OF Corona. Which needs extensive post mortem examination, as usual. That's the important and interesting thing, when talking about the harm done by a disease.

Edited November 17, 2020 by chakkman

[cabalistic]

59 minutes ago, chakkman said:

The question is rather whether or not they died OF Corona. Which needs extensive post mortem examination, as usual. That's the important and interesting thing, when talking about the harm done by a disease.

The way you are wording this, you seem to believe that COVID did not cause a significant number of those deaths. May I ask why? What do you expect those extensive post mortems would find?

[Xolvix]

Man my state is stupid sometimes. The toilet paper is starting to run out again in some stores. I've already got loads of it so it ain't an issue for me but... I mean come on. It's like no-one learnt from the Melbourne/Victoria lockdown - no-one fucking starved or lacked for necessities like TP, even in one of the harshest lockdowns ever seen supply lines remained intact. But panicky people gonna panic I guess.

[peter_spy]

I also noticed people queuing up in foreign exchange joints. Somebody expects our currency to plummet in the immediate future?

[Xolvix]

25 minutes ago, peter_spy said:

I also noticed people queuing up in foreign exchange joints. Somebody expects our currency to plummet in the immediate future?

Well that's odd. The Internet had convinced me that CDPR is effectively keeping Poland's entire economy afloat with Witcher 3 and soon Cyberpunk 2077.

[peter_spy]

Maybe it's the amount of social unrest and a possible cut of EU funds due to declining jurisdiction / human rights violations that make people believe things will get much worse soon. It might be just like with your toilet paper example though.

Edited November 18, 2020 by peter_spy

[Springheel]

23 hours ago, chakkman said:

The question is rather whether or not they died OF Corona. Which needs extensive post mortem examination, as usual. That's the important and interesting thing, when talking about the harm done by a disease.

Is there any practical difference between someone who dies "of Corona" and someone who dies due to Covid-induced complications?  Unless you're referring to people who would have died regardless of whether they had Covid or not--those people are easy to filter out by subtracting the average death rates from the current ones.

 

[Carnage]

13 hours ago, Xolvix said:

Man my state is stupid sometimes. The toilet paper is starting to run out again in some stores. I've already got loads of it so it ain't an issue for me but... I mean come on. It's like no-one learnt from the Melbourne/Victoria lockdown - no-one fucking starved or lacked for necessities like TP, even in one of the harshest lockdowns ever seen supply lines remained intact. But panicky people gonna panic I guess.

These people probably have PTSDs from dumping their load and afterwards finding out that there isn't any toilet paper. Toilet paper would be on the top of my apocalypse preparation list as well, I mean food and water don't mean anything if you can't dump it peacefully afterwards... Imagine Hollywood making a post-apocalyptic movie where all people are fighting over toilet paper and it's the most valuable trading good, that would be hilarious.

[demagogue]

Re: coronavirus, to put things into perspective, the mortality rate is about 2% (in a developed country; in a developing country it can be as high as 5%), and that's including acute and aggravated cases. There's not that much difference between them, so I think debating about that difference is making too much of it. And anyway, from a public health policy perspective, your job is saving lives, and aggravated circumstances are just an inherent part of that job. So you have to take them into account in the policy one way or another.

But, and this is my main point, I think in the big scheme of things, the arguably more (or anyway as) important number is going to be that ~40% of cases develop long-term complications, so-called long covid. This is what I had for three months from April to July, and now it's November and I'm still getting complications from it, 7.5 months out. So I can vouch that the complications can be debilitating, at least over the first few months.

So there's been 55 million cases globally. (There's reasons to think that count is vastly under-counted because most cases don't display symptoms; testing is sporadic; etc. But it's a very conservative figure to work with, which is good for making points about it.) 40% of that is 22 million people that are having their life sidetracked for weeks to months after the illness. I think that's going to have a staggering effect on society & the economy around the world down the road that won't even be widely recognized for a while, because we're still in the middle of it we can't even get perspective on what's happening.

[Springheel]

7 minutes ago, demagogue said:

But, and this is my main point, I think in the big scheme of things, the arguably more (or anyway as) important number is going to be that ~40% of cases develop long-term complications, so-called long covid. This is what I had for three months from April to July, and now it's November and I'm still getting complications from it, 7.5 months out. So I can vouch that the complications can be debilitating, at least over the first few months.

Wow, I didn't know that you had it!  What kind of complications did you have?  I'm far more concerned about those, if I should get it, than the risk of actually dying.

[chakkman]

1 hour ago, Springheel said:

Is there any practical difference between someone who dies "of Corona" and someone who dies due to Covid-induced complications?  Unless you're referring to people who would have died regardless of whether they had Covid or not--those people are easy to filter out by subtracting the average death rates from the current ones.

 

I doubt that you can easily split that. Many old people die of pneumonia. Due to lack of body defences. So, the cause of death is pneumonia, not age.

Of course the real cause of death IS age.

That doesn't even include post-mortem examination to find out the definite cause though, which, as I mentioned, is a extensive, and expensive process, which can't be performed for 1.3 million people, that's for sure.

Edited November 18, 2020 by chakkman